A comprehensive data-driven framework demonstrating 157% return on investment for preventive medicine investments across five major disease areas in the United Arab Emirates.
This framework provides three primary analytical tools for stakeholders:
For implementation guidance, see Implementation Roadmap. For methodology details, see Technical Methodology.
| Content Area | Target Audience | Reading Time |
|---|---|---|
| Key Interventions | Health policy makers, administrators | 5 minutes |
| Technical Methodology | Health economists, researchers | 15 minutes |
| Strategic Integration | Policy makers, health authorities | 10 minutes |
| Implementation Guide | Technical teams, data scientists | 20 minutes |
The UAE faces significant health challenges with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) occurring earlier than global averages, with first cardiac events at age 45 versus the global average of 55-65 years. This framework provides economic evidence that strategic prevention investments can address this challenge while generating substantial returns.
| Outcome Measure | 10-Year Projection | Clinical Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Return on Investment | 157% | AED 20.4B investment → AED 52.4B benefit |
| Premature Deaths Averted | 16,325 | Population health improvement |
| Major Events Prevented | 158,080 | Healthcare system capacity relief |
| Quality-Adjusted Life Years | 326,280 | Population wellbeing enhancement |
The analysis is based on UAE-specific epidemiological data and international clinical trial evidence, validated through 10,000-iteration probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and aligned with national health strategies.
Target Population: 500,000 high-risk adults
Economic Outcome: 180% ROI, AED 61,400 per QALY
| Intervention | Annual Cost | Evidence Base | 10-Year Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Generic statin therapy | AED 500-1,000 per person | Meta-analysis showing 25% event reduction | 12,450 events prevented |
| Population salt reduction | AED 50M national program | WHO documentation of 12:1 ROI | 3,120 deaths averted |
| Risk factor management | AED 800 per person annually | UAE data: 22.4% young adult hypertension | AED 7.2B economic benefit |
Target Population: 750,000 pre-diabetic adults
Economic Outcome: 110% ROI, AED 32,100 per QALY
| Intervention | Program Cost | Evidence Base | 10-Year Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intensive lifestyle intervention | AED 1,890 per program | Diabetes Prevention Program: 58% risk reduction | 127,500 cases prevented |
| Metformin therapy | AED 300 per person annually | DPP trial: 31% reduction in high-risk groups | 45,900 complications avoided |
| Digital health support | AED 240 per person annually | UAE pilot study: 67% engagement rate | AED 8.9B economic benefit |
Target Population: 1.1M eligible adults
Economic Outcome: 85% ROI, AED 42,250 per QALY
| Screening Method | Cost per Test | Evidence Base | 10-Year Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIT-first colorectal screening | AED 100-200 | NordICC trial: 18% mortality reduction | 5,200 early detections |
| Enhanced mammography | AED 500-1,000 | Meta-analysis: 20% mortality reduction | 3,300 early detections |
| Combined FIT and liquid biopsy | AED 800 combined | Shield test: 83% sensitivity | 3,100 deaths prevented |
Target Population: 234,000 at-risk adults
Economic Outcome: 84% ROI, cost-saving for population aged 75+
| Intervention | Screening Cost | Evidence Base | 10-Year Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEXA with targeted treatment | AED 500-1,000 per scan | Tosteson et al.: Cost-saving for age 75+ | 10,530 fractures prevented |
| Risk-stratified approach | AED 200 per assessment | USPSTF Grade B recommendation | AED 661M net savings |
Target Population: 30,000 high-risk elderly
Economic Outcome: 60% ROI, AED 48,900 per QALY
| Intervention | Annual Cost | Evidence Base | 5-Year Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIND diet program | AED 2,400 per person annually | Harvard cohort: 53% risk reduction | 2,700 onsets delayed |
| Multidomain intervention | AED 3,600 per person annually | FINGER trial: Cognitive benefit demonstrated | 35% caregiver burden reduction |
| Blood biomarker screening | AED 800 per test | P-tau217: $55,194 per QALY | AED 404M net benefit |
This analysis employs disease-specific Markov cohort models with validated health state transitions following the progression: Healthy → At-Risk → Diagnosed → Complications → Death.
| Parameter | International Standard | UAE Adaptation | Data Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVD Onset Age | 55-65 years | 45 years | Al-Shamsi et al., 2022 |
| Healthcare Inflation | 3-4% annually | 5.8% annually | Dubai Health Authority, 2024 |
| Quality of Life Valuation | Generic EQ-5D | UAE-specific EQ-5D-5L | Papadimitropoulos et al., 2024 |
| Diabetes Complication Costs | Standard progression | 9.4x cost increase | Al-Maskari et al., 2010 |
The UAE’s National Genome Strategy provides opportunities for enhanced prevention approaches:
| Technology | Current Practice | Precision Enhancement | Estimated ROI Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statin Therapy | Standard dosing | SLCO1B1 genetic testing | 15% adherence improvement |
| Cancer Screening | Conventional methods | cfDNA liquid biopsy integration | 40% uptake increase in hesitant populations |
| Alzheimer’s Assessment | Expensive amyloid-PET imaging | P-tau217 blood biomarkers | $55,194 per QALY versus imaging |
The ROI framework provides foundational architecture for precision medicine scenario modeling with customizable parameters for future technology integration.
| Limitation | Potential Impact | Mitigation Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Cohort Approach | Assumes homogeneous population behavior | Probabilistic sensitivity analysis across demographic strata |
| Annual Cycle Length | May not capture short-term clinical events | Conservative effectiveness estimates |
| Health State Simplification | Disease progression more complex than modeled | Validated transition probabilities from literature |
These limitations are inherent to health economic modeling and do not invalidate the framework’s utility for strategic decision-making. The model provides the best available evidence while acknowledging uncertainty. Regular parameter updates and real-world validation will enhance accuracy over time.
Recommendation: Use results for directional guidance and relative comparisons rather than precise budget planning. Conduct sensitivity analysis on key assumptions relevant to specific implementation contexts.
| UAE Health Initiative | Framework Alignment | Quantified Contribution |
|---|---|---|
| “We the UAE 2031” | Prevention-focused healthcare vision | 157% ROI demonstration |
| UAE Centennial 2071 | Long-term prosperity through health investment | 326,000 QALYs over 10 years |
| MOHAP Strategic Plan | Integrated preventive healthcare approach | Evidence-based resource allocation |
| Healthy Lifestyles Policy (2022) | NCD prevention targeting | 158,000 disease events prevented |
Coordinating Bodies: Ministry of Health and Prevention (MOHAP), Dubai Health Authority (DHA), Department of Health Abu Dhabi (DoH)
# Repository Setup
git clone https://github.com/P-BioMedLab/uae-preventive-health-framework.git
cd uae-preventive-health-framework
python -m http.server 8000
# Access via http://localhost:8000
Deliverables:
Scope: Single health authority partnership (DHA or SEHA)
Target Outcome: Standardized HTA tool for budget decisions exceeding AED 10M
| Issue Category | Resolution Approach | Contact Method |
|---|---|---|
| Calculator functionality | Browser compatibility check/cache clearing | Repository Issues |
| Parameter interpretation | Documentation in /data/ directory | Academic team |
| Policy integration | HTA compliance section review | Institutional partnerships |
| Stakeholder Group | Primary Application | Representative Use Case |
|---|---|---|
| Health Ministers | Evidence-based budget optimization | ROI analysis for AED 500M prevention investment |
| Health Authorities | HTA-compliant program prioritization | Cost-effectiveness threshold analysis |
| Insurance Providers | Risk-based pricing optimization | Prevention program impact on actuarial models |
| Corporate Health Programs | Employee health investment justification | Business case development for comprehensive prevention |
| Public Health Advocates | Enhanced preventive service access | Evidence-based program advocacy |
/outputs/ # Interactive analytical tools (HTML/JavaScript)
├── uae_prevention_roi_calculator.html
├── uae_health_dashboard.html
└── uae_prevention_presentation.html
/data/ # Model parameters and assumptions
/scripts/ # Data processing utilities
/docs/ # Extended documentation
├── TECHNICAL_METHODS.md
├── POLICY_INTEGRATION.md
└── IMPLEMENTATION_GUIDE.md
CITATION.cff # GitHub citation metadata
LICENSE # AGPL-3.0-or-later (code)
LICENSE-DOCS # CC BY 4.0 (documentation)
LICENSE-DATA # CC BY 4.0 (data/parameters)
README.md # This documentation
B., P. (2025). UAE Preventive Health Investment Framework: A Data-Driven Economic Evaluation. GitHub.
https://github.com/P-BioMedLab/uae-preventive-health-framework
@misc{P_uae_prevention_framework_2025,
title={UAE Preventive Health Investment Framework: A Data-Driven Economic Evaluation},
author={B., P.},
year={2025},
url={https://github.com/P-BioMedLab/uae-preventive-health-framework},
note={Code: AGPL-3.0-or-later, Documentation: CC BY 4.0, Data: CC BY 4.0}
}
This repository employs a multi-license approach:
| User Profile | Recommended Starting Point | Estimated Time |
|---|---|---|
| Senior Health Executive | Interactive Calculator + Study Overview | 10 minutes |
| Health Economist | Technical Methodology + Interactive Calculator | 25 minutes |
| Policy Analyst | Strategic Integration + Implementation Guide | 20 minutes |
| Research Developer | Repository clone + Documentation review | 45 minutes |
This framework provides evidence-based support for preventive health investment decisions in the UAE context. The analysis demonstrates substantial economic returns alongside significant population health benefits. The open-source methodology enables adaptation for institutional use while maintaining analytical rigor.
Implementation should begin with pilot programs to validate real-world effectiveness before system-wide deployment. Regular parameter updates and ongoing validation will enhance the framework’s accuracy and utility for health policy decision-making.
License Information:
Code: AGPL-3.0-or-later | Documentation: CC BY 4.0 | Data: CC BY 4.0
SPDX-License-Identifier: AGPL-3.0-or-later
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Data Sources: All modeling parameters derived from publicly available sources including peer-reviewed literature, government health statistics, WHO/UNDP reports, and validated international cost-effectiveness studies. No proprietary or individual-level data utilized. Complete parameter documentation available in /data/ directory with source attribution.
| *UAE Preventive Health Investment Framework | Licensed under AGPL-3.0-or-later (code), CC BY 4.0 (documentation and data) | Academic collaboration welcome* |